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Friday's report on UK-Analyst is from GE&CR: Avisen* - Long-term buy
555 Days ago (2010-07-30 18:23:48)
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30th July 2010
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Avisen* - Strategic repositioning complete and
growth emerging, Long term Buy
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Key
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Data
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EPIC
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AVI
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Share Price
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3.75p
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Spread
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3.5p - 4.0p
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NMS
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2,000
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Total Number of Issued
Shares
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225.27 million
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Market Cap
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GBP8.45 million
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12 month Range
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3.66p - 15.5p
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Market
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AIM
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Website
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www.avisen.com
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Sector
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Software & Computer
Services
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Contact
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Marcus Hanke
Chief Executive
07976 749408
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Avisen, the business management consultancy
and performance software provider, released
its full year results ended 31 January 2010,
a period of substantial corporate development
since its reversal into Z Group on 2 February
2009. During the year Avisen made five
strategic acquisitions that have had to be
integrated resulting in exceptional
charges.
Sales revenues increased from GBP2.406
million for the 10-month accounting period
ended 31 January 2009 to GBP7.165 million.
Gross profit increased from GBP1.303 million
to GBP2.354 million although the gross margin
contracted from 54.2% to 32.9% due to the
broadening out of the business activities
although margins should move up again as
integration benefits begin to feed through.
The enlarged group reported a total operating
loss of GBP3.109 million but this was struck
after GBP1.339 million of exceptional
charges. Consequently the underlying EBITA
loss was GBP1.770 million while the
underlying EBITDA loss of GBP1.726 million.
Net finance costs amounted to GBP6,000 offset
by a ‘gain on bargain purchase' of
GBP46,000 resulted in a reported pre-tax loss
of GBP3.069 million a loss per share of
2.39p.
However, the Avisen story is about a focused
buy and build strategy and since the year end
the group has disposed of its non-core South
African activities and completed the all
share GBP11.4 million acquisition of Xploite
plc which was effected through a Scheme of
Arrangement. The terms of the offer were 3.6
new Avisen Ordinary shares for each Xploite
share. Xploite's main operational asset is
Storage Fusion, a SRA software business,
which strategically compliments and
strengthens the group's existing consultancy
and software business performance
solutions.
The group, following the successful
integration of Xploite, has also restructured
its executive management with Ian smith,
Anthony Weaver and Michael Frank all leaving
to pursue other interests while Mark Battles
joins as non-Executive Interim Chairman and
Claire Milverton becomes full time Chief
Financial Officer.
The enlarged group's strategy will be to
continue to increase market share in the CPM
market through increased service offering;
optimise Storage Fusion, which as of last
month is apparently breaking even by
cross-selling to existing and prospective
performance management clients; and further
strategic acquisitions.
Xploite strengthened Avisen's balance sheet
and it is believed that the group will have
net cash of around GBP5.3 million following
the receipt of GBP2.15 million in September
from the earlier sale of
Anix.
Avisen started the current year building upon
the successful consolidation and integration
of its earlier acquisitions and the momentum
was not disrupted by the acquisition of and
rapid assimilation of Xploite's operating
asset Storage Fusion that is now trading at
break even. We understand that Storage Fusion
may lose up to GBP0.5 million EBITA this
year. Nevertheless, the group appears to be
generating annualised sales of around GBP14
million and an EBITA of around GBP1.9 million
or a group pre-tax profit of GBP1.4 million
after central costs of GBP0.5 million and a
modest net financial income from its cash
balances compared with last year's recorded
loss of GBP3.069 million.
With Avisen's shares trading at 3.75p the
group is trading on an EV/EBITA of 2.25x and
given the turnaround that is becoming evident
for the group we would argue that a multiple
of at least 6x would not be unreasonable or
demanding, which suggests a target price of
10p. However, this target price assumes that
the group cannot successfully deploy its cash
pile and may generate the equivalent or
higher returns than its existing businesses,
consequently we would recommend the shares as
a long term Buy.

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Forecast
Table
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Year to 31 January
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Sales
(GBP000)
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Pre-tax Profit
(GBP000)
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Earnings per share (p)
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Price Earning Ratio (x)
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Dividend (p)
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Yield (%)
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2008A1
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4,020
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318
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0.30
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12.5
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0.0
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0.0
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2009A2
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2,773
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(102)
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(4.07)
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NA
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0.0
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0.0
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2010E3
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7,165
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(3,069)
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(2.39)
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NA
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0.0
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0.0
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2011E3,4
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14,000
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1,400
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0.636
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6.0
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0.0
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0.0
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Source: Growth Equities & Company
Research
Notes:
1 12 months ended 31 March
2 10 months ended 31 January
3 12 months ended 31 January
4 Includes Xploite for 6 months
5 Based on number of shares in issue following
reverse acquisition of Z Group plc
6 Based on average number of shares in issue
following completion of Scheme of Arrangement for
acquisition of Xploite plc.
7 Total number of shares following Scheme of
Arrangement for acquisition of Xploite plc will be
225. 27 million.
*Avisen
is a corporate client of Rivington Street Holdings the
ultimate owner of GE&CR. The SF t1ps Growth Fund
which is managed by an RSH subsidiary owns shares in
Avisen
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This research note cannot be regarded as
impartial as GE&CR has been commissioned to
produce it by
Inland, it should be regarded as a marketing
communication.
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