Wednesday's report on UK-Analyst is from GE&CR: Buy Ambrian Capital - with a 44p target price

536 Days ago (2010-08-18 16:08:07)

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18th August 2010
Analyst: Derren Nathan
Email:
derren.nathan@gecr.co.uk
Tel:
0207 562 3371

Ambrian Capital* – Acquisition of Masefield Bio-Fuels – Buy at 22.25p


Key Data

EPIC

AMBR

Share Price

22.25p

Spread

21.50p-23.00p

Total no of Shares

106.92 million

Market Cap

£24.1 million

Net Cash

£23.9 million

12 Month Range

21.50p - 36.00p

Market

AIM

Website

www.ambrian.com

Sector

General Financial

Contact

Tom Gaffney, CEO

0207 634 4700


This morning Ambrian Capital has further strengthened the product range of its physical commodities supply business, through the acquisition of Masefield Bio-Fuels, which will henceforth trade as Ambrian Energy GmbH. This is the latest addition to the commodities franchise, following the formation of Ambrian Energy in July 2010. The acquisition brings on board a team with excellent experience in the energy market. Ambrian Capital intends to inject $5 million into the business for working capital purposes. The business intends to lease 12,200 cubic metres of fuel storage space in Belgium, a central location from which to supply its client base.

Last year Masefield Bio-Fuels supplied approximately $100 million, or 100,000 tonnes of bio-diesel to European clients. The company's main focus is fuel derived from palm oil, but also trades derivatives of rapeseed and soybeans. The bio-fuels market has excellent growth potential driven by environmental concerns and regulatory pressure. For example, in 2007 the EU set a target, that by 2020 bio-fuels should make up at least 10% of vehicle fuel. Bio-fuel use in the EU should reach 15 million tonnes of oil equivalent this year, or 4.8% of all transport fuels, according to the latest barometer published by alternative energy group Eurobserver. This is below a non-binding 5.75% target for 2010.

There have been some well voiced concerns about the sustainability of bio-fuels. However Masefield Bio-Fuels is a member of the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil, which adds weight to the business's ecological credentials.

Ambrian Capital has a unique investment profile amongst AIM companies in that it is a one stop physical commodities supplier, Broker-Dealer of LME (London Metals Exchange) Futures and Options, and Corporate Finance and Equities advisor, all within the natural resources and energy sectors. This is a core differentiator when comparing to other listed boutique investment banks, many of whom have struggled to replace revenues lost due to a weak primary equity market.

Commodities now account for the majority of revenues and profits, and as per the Pre-Close trading statement issued on 6 July for the first six months of 2010, a weak performance (loss) in equities and corporate finance, was offset by profits in the commodities business. Cost cutting measures taken early in the second half of the financial year in the loss making division, should help it back towards break even and we expect that the group as a whole will be back in profit for the full year.

Ambrian Capital has a good track record of delivering organic growth and today has shown its ability to make complementary acquisitions. It is very well regarded as an expert within its specialist sectors. The shares are trading at a 19% discount to tangible NAV, a price which we believe incorporates no value at all for the company's revenues and profits. We therefore maintain our previous target price of 44p. Whilst the Corporate Finance and Equities business is highly geared to a possible pick up in natural resources deals on the equity markets, the Commodities part of the business has the opportunity to grow through the recent diversification into Crude Oil and Biofuels. In addition the company has plans to increase its trading capacity on the LME by obtaining a 3rd party liquidity provider, and has increased its ability to provide physical commodities to China by establishing a subsidiary in Shanghai. We will be producing a more comprehensive note on Ambrian Capital, with detailed forecasts and a valuation, shortly after its interim results whose publication we anticipate in September.

 

 

Historic Financial Results.

Year to 31st December

Sales
(£million)

Pre-tax Profit
(£million)

Earnings per share (p)

Price Earning Ratio (x)

Dividend (p)

Yield (%)

2008A

8.0

(2.4)

(1.8)

NA

1.5

6.7

2009A

17.5

2.6

2.7

8.2

1.5

6.7

Source: Growth Equities & Company Research

* Ambrian Capital owns shares in Rivington Street Holdings, the ultimate owner of GE&CR.

 

 

This research note cannot be regarded as impartial as GE&CR has been commissioned to produce it by Ambrian Capital*, it should be regarded as a marketing communication.

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This research report is for general guidance only and T1ps.com Limited cannot assume legal liability for any errors or omissions it might contain. Readers of this report should also be aware that because this research is not independent that there is no prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of it.

The value of investments can go down as well as up and you may not get back all of the money you invested; You should also be aware that the past is not necessarily a guide to the future performance. Finally, some of the shares that are written about are smaller company shares and often the market in these shares is not particularly liquid which may result in significant trading spreads and sometimes may lead to difficulties in opening and/or closing positions. Before investing, readers should seek professional advice from a Financial Services Authorised stockbroker or financial adviser.

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email philip.morrish@gecr.co.uk - fax 020 7628 3815 tel 0207 562 3362