Monday's free penny share tip on UK-Analyst.com is from Richard Gill of the AIM & PLUS Newsletter

524 Days ago (2010-08-30 17:17:46)

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Buy United Carpets at 9p

Says The AIM & PLUS Newsletter

In the September 2009 edition the small cap experts at the AIM & PLUS Newsletter recommended that subscribers invest in penny share United Carpets shares at 8p. Since then they have given investors decent gains of 13%. But, the AIM & PLUS team, headed up by PLUS Journalist of the Year Richard Gill, reckons there is much further to go. On a lowly rating and whopping dividend yield they believe that this is one free hot share tip to buy now! For details on how to subscribe to this award winning publication, click here.

THE BUSINESS

Behind Carpetright in first place, United Carpets can claim to be the second largest carpet and floorings retailer in the UK. Joining AIM in February 2005, raising GBP1.67 million, the company had an ambitious target of increasing its store portfolio from 51 to 100 stores by March 2008, however these plans were soon scaled back due to the difficult trading conditions in the retail market. United has made significant progress in recent years however and now operates from 82 stores in its core areas of Northern and Central England, with the southern most (and most westerly) store being located in Cardiff.

What makes the company different to its main competitors is that Uniteds business is based on an entrepreneurial franchise model. The company started out life as a traditional retailer but the first store was converted into a franchised unit in 2008. Apart from 12 corporate stores, the remainder as at the 2010 year end were all franchises operating under the United Carpets' franchise model. Franchisees pay a weekly fee to the company as a proportion of gross takings and are provided with a range of support services from the companys head office.

Most of Uniteds outlets are located in secondary retail locations, with target customers being in the socio-economic groups C1 to E - junior managerial workers to the unemployed. The majority of group revenues are derived from the sale of floor coverings - mainly carpets, laminates and vinyl flooring but company also has a growing beds operation, operating under the United Beds moniker. Marketing is heavily focused on television advertising, supported by radio, print and direct advertising strategies, with campaigns being co-ordinated at group level and related costs charged to individual franchises.

United is run by Chief Executive Paul Eyre, or as he used to be known in marketing for his previous venture, Paul Eyre Carpets, "Mr. Super Deal." He co-founded the business in the late 1990s following the collapse of Paul Eyre Carpets. Eyre has 30 years experience in the industry and currently owns almost half of the business.

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CURRENT TRADING

United Carpets recently rolled out a robust set of results for the year to end-March 2010, with profit before tax and exceptional items rising by 7.3% to GBP1.463 million, slightly ahead of forecasts. The solid bottom line result was achieved despite a relatively anaemic outcome at the top line, with revenue (which as in previous years includes marketing and rental costs incurred by the group and recharged to franchisees) up by 2.5% to GBP27.47 million.

Network sales across the group, including the value of retail sales by its franchisees (to give a measure of the group's turnover on a more comparable basis to a conventional retailer), increased by 7.4% to GBP69.9 million. United generated GBP1.7 million of net operational cashflow during the period, taking net cash at the period end to GBP2.1 million, up from GBP1.7 million. This supported the payment of a final dividend payment of 0.5p per share, unchanged from last year.

During the period, the company continued with its strategy of reducing the number of corporate-owned stores and replacing them with franchisees. To these ends, the number of corporate stores was reduced from 23 to 12 while 12 franchisees were introduced, taking the total number of stores to 82 from 80. The increased proportion of franchise income helped lift gross margins by two percentage points to 66.2%.

Floor coverings saw like-for-like growth of 1%, whilst beds, which account for less than 10% of network sales, saw a slowdown in the second half with like-for-likes also up by 1% in the year affected by the weaker economy for high ticket spending. In the first 17 weeks of the current year like-for-like sales of floor coverings and beds were down by 2.6% and 25.5% respectively, although it should be noted that this period includes the World Cup, the general election and subsequent budget which together have made for an exceptionally tough trading period.

While the company will continue to invest in its store roll-out programme where it sees attractive opportunities, it is bracing itself for further challenges in the months ahead as the economic outlook remains uncertain.

ASSESSMENT

The cautious outlook statement has led broker Seymour Pierce to reduce its 2010/11 pre-tax profit forecast from GBP1.65 million to a similar level to the previous year's at GBP1.46 million. However, this still implies a current rating of around 6 times, which looks low enough to account for the uncertain outlook. Moreover, we note the attraction of the dividend which, if maintained at 0.75p, suggests a yield of 8.3%. Such a level of income looks appealing in the current environment, and the strength of the balance sheet suggests it can be maintained in the short term.

We would also like to highlight the valuation gap with peer Carpetright, which trades on a current rating of 20 despite a sizeable debt position. If United can continue to achieve even a modest uplift in earnings through continuing to increase the proportion of franchise stores in its portfolio, we would expect the shares to do well. BUY.

Key Data
Epic: UCG
Market: AIM
Spread: 8.5p - 9.5p

The AIM & PLUS Newsletter, launched in 1995, covers shares listed on the Alternative Investment Market (AIM) and the PLUS Markets trading facility. Twice winner of the prestigious AIM Best Research Award, every month The AIM & PLUS Newsletter brings you two meticulously researched tips as well as investment ideas, analysis and expert comment on a wide range of companies from these vibrant markets, and is edited by current PLUS Journalist of the Year Richard Gill. To gain access click HERE.

*The value of investments can go down as well as up. Past performance is no guarantee of future success. Investing in equities can lose you part or all of your capital. The tips given here are of necessity, general. They cannot relate to the individual circumstances of investors. Anyone considering following the recommendations contained here should seek independent advice. Investments in smaller company shares, by their nature, can be relatively illiquid and thus hard to trade. And that makes such investments more of a high risk than larger company shares.